Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Monday, December 30, 2013
Friday, December 27, 2013
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Monday, December 23, 2013
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Interesting article on the value of gold
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-independent-viewpoint?oid=221799&sn=Detail
Monday, December 16, 2013
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Gold trading update 11 December 2013
Hi Everyone
Hopefully the gold price has settled into an upward trend again and we can get back to some more profitable trades.
For me the up-trend was confirmed when the Gold price breached the $1255 resistance level and the technical indicators are lining up for the next long trade to be entered at around the $1263 level. Place your stop-loses at around $1253 and take profit above $1275.
All the best and good luck
Chris
Hopefully the gold price has settled into an upward trend again and we can get back to some more profitable trades.
For me the up-trend was confirmed when the Gold price breached the $1255 resistance level and the technical indicators are lining up for the next long trade to be entered at around the $1263 level. Place your stop-loses at around $1253 and take profit above $1275.
All the best and good luck
Chris
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Gold trading update - 12 December 2013
Hi Everyone
Please note that the long term trend has turned up, so please do not enter into the short trade as earlier advised.
The confirmation of the trend reversal will be if the Gold price drops below $1235.28, should the price then rise through the trading session high you should enter into a long trade.
All the best
Chris
Please note that the long term trend has turned up, so please do not enter into the short trade as earlier advised.
The confirmation of the trend reversal will be if the Gold price drops below $1235.28, should the price then rise through the trading session high you should enter into a long trade.
All the best
Chris
Gold trading update - 12 December 2013
Hi Everyone
Herewith my trading update on gold.
The charts have been lining up for a short trade. I would look to enter at the $1235 level with a stoploss placed at $1243 and take profit below $1227.
All the best and good luck
Chris
Herewith my trading update on gold.
The charts have been lining up for a short trade. I would look to enter at the $1235 level with a stoploss placed at $1243 and take profit below $1227.
All the best and good luck
Chris
Friday, December 6, 2013
Gold trading update - 6 December 2013
Hi everyone
After taking 2 consecutive losses the trend has turned upwards.
I will be looking at entering a long trade at the $1233 level.
Good luck
Chris
After taking 2 consecutive losses the trend has turned upwards.
I will be looking at entering a long trade at the $1233 level.
Good luck
Chris
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Gold trading update - 4 December 2013
Hi Everyone
After taking 2 losses in a row the trend on gold has eventually turned long.
We will have to wait for the fist long trade to set up and then hopefully ride the upwards trend.
Will advise.
Chris
After taking 2 losses in a row the trend on gold has eventually turned long.
We will have to wait for the fist long trade to set up and then hopefully ride the upwards trend.
Will advise.
Chris
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Monday, December 2, 2013
Daily gold trading update 2 December 2013
Hi everyone
Last night I expressed my hope for a good start to the December trading month, well it could not have started any better.
Entered the short trade at $1249.11 and took profit at $1231.17!
The strategy for the next 24 hours is to wait for a reset and then trade the next down swing. We however also have to keep an eye on the trend reversal signal that is currently at around $1252. Should this level be breached it will indicate that the market on gold have turned bullish.
Have a great day
Chris
Last night I expressed my hope for a good start to the December trading month, well it could not have started any better.
Entered the short trade at $1249.11 and took profit at $1231.17!
The strategy for the next 24 hours is to wait for a reset and then trade the next down swing. We however also have to keep an eye on the trend reversal signal that is currently at around $1252. Should this level be breached it will indicate that the market on gold have turned bullish.
Have a great day
Chris
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Gold trading update 1 December 2013
Hi everyone
The start of a new month.
The current trade is aiming for another short trade with a reversal possible in the next couple of days. For now however it is short with the trigger around $1241 on the 4H timeframe.
The level of the short trade will however rise to around the $1245 level during the AM, keep an eye out for the email alerts though.
Let hope for great start to the month as trading will get thin in the second half of the month.
All the be$t
Chris
The start of a new month.
The current trade is aiming for another short trade with a reversal possible in the next couple of days. For now however it is short with the trigger around $1241 on the 4H timeframe.
The level of the short trade will however rise to around the $1245 level during the AM, keep an eye out for the email alerts though.
Let hope for great start to the month as trading will get thin in the second half of the month.
All the be$t
Chris
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Risk management and the number of lots to trade.
Risk management is a very important aspect of your trading strategy. Even if you have the best technical or fundamental strategy, poor risk management will wipe out your investments very quickly. What makes this even more frustrating is that you might be able to trade very successfully for a while just to have your hard won gains wiped out in one or a couple of trades.
Managing a consistently growing portfolio is about a lot of patience and the basics:
The best approach that I have found is to combine the "Total investments made" and "Time" strategies discussed above. When you start out, start small and follow these strategies in a very disciplined way. If you do you will achieve your goals but it will take 10 years even if you start small.
Managing a consistently growing portfolio is about a lot of patience and the basics:
- Your profit trade % must be above 50%.
- Obviously the higher above 50% the more your growth.
- You should however not be too greedy. I always aim for a profit % of around 60%
- Your average profit should be higher than your average losses.
- A good standard to look at here should be that your average profit should be 80% higher than your average losses.
Now we get to the most common trading error and that is to increase your number of lots traded to aggressively. It is very tempting to increase the lots when you are in a long consecutive trading run - it appears so easy and my strategy must be working so why not speed up things a bit. Believe me I have been there, this is a sure way to disaster.
Plan when you will increase the number of lots traded and stick to this plan no matter what.
In my opinion there is a number of fundamentals that you can base your lots strategy on:
- Total investment portfolio value
- Example - Increase your trades with 0.1 lots for every $1000 in your total portfolio.
- This could become problematic as you increase your portfolio growth and when you take a couple of losses you have to decrease your lots again. Personally I have found this strategy very frustrating as you seem to hover between the current and next lot quantity forever. This will be especially true when you are starting out and the number of lots traded are quite small.
- Total investment made
- Example - Trade 0.1 lot for every $1000 dollars invested in your portfolio.
- The benefit of this strategy is that you will manage your risk very well and will over a shorter time get your investments back.
- On the negative side you will depend on consistent investments to grow the lots traded and therefor miss out on all the benefits that compounding will bring.
- This strategy can be followed if you have a limited investment that you will make over a limited time and if you have a conservative approach.
- Time
- Example - Increase your lots trade annually with half the percentage of the profit made in the last 12 months. If you made profit of 50% in the last 12 months, then increase your lots traded with 25%.
- This approach will require patience, but will give you the benefits of compounding over time while managing your risk
Remember consistency and discipline is the only way to ensure long-term success - Compounding will take care of the rest.
All the best
Chris
November 2013 wrap-up.
Hi Everyone
November proved to be a very successful trading month, herewith the summary.
Instrument traded - Gold (4 Hour signals)
Number of trades - 10
Profit trade % - 70%
Profit factor - 4.06%
Maximal drawdown - 7.58%
The strategy for December can prove to be more tricky, I do however believe to maintain a very consistent trading strategy despite the month of the year or any market conditions as this is the only way to achieve a non-emotional statistically consistent outcome. I therefor expect December to be a flat month with average profits and losses to be much smaller when compared to November.
All the best
Chris
November proved to be a very successful trading month, herewith the summary.
Instrument traded - Gold (4 Hour signals)
Number of trades - 10
Profit trade % - 70%
Profit factor - 4.06%
Maximal drawdown - 7.58%
The strategy for December can prove to be more tricky, I do however believe to maintain a very consistent trading strategy despite the month of the year or any market conditions as this is the only way to achieve a non-emotional statistically consistent outcome. I therefor expect December to be a flat month with average profits and losses to be much smaller when compared to November.
All the best
Chris
Friday, November 29, 2013
Gold trading update 29 November 2013
Hi Everyone
Who would have believed it but it seems there is still one trade left in November - Go short below $1240 with a tight stoploss at around $1246 and take profit at $1234.
Remember to close all positions tonight before the market closes.
Good luck
Chris
Who would have believed it but it seems there is still one trade left in November - Go short below $1240 with a tight stoploss at around $1246 and take profit at $1234.
Remember to close all positions tonight before the market closes.
Good luck
Chris
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Gold trading update 27 November 2013
Hi everyone
The mentioned last trade for November was triggered earlier today and is still open in the market. Lets see what happens - hopefully it will be profitable ending a great November with a profit for the month around 30%
All the best
Chris
The mentioned last trade for November was triggered earlier today and is still open in the market. Lets see what happens - hopefully it will be profitable ending a great November with a profit for the month around 30%
All the best
Chris
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Gold trading update 26 Movember 2013
Hi Everyone
Two good trading days, now we will have to see if there is still one short trade in the month. I will suggest that you wait for gold to breach $1250 and then we will trade the pullback - possibly on Thursday.
I will update again tomorrow.
All the best
Chris
Two good trading days, now we will have to see if there is still one short trade in the month. I will suggest that you wait for gold to breach $1250 and then we will trade the pullback - possibly on Thursday.
I will update again tomorrow.
All the best
Chris
Monday, November 25, 2013
Gold trading update 25 November 2013
Hi Everyone
Not a bad trading day with the trade described last night playing out early this morning resulting in a nice profit.
The 4H signals have also reset and the next short trade is lining up. I would suggest that you short anywhere below $1235 and take profit around $1229.
As always the best is to subscribe to my email alerts on my blog to get notified when I trade.
Good luck
Chris
Not a bad trading day with the trade described last night playing out early this morning resulting in a nice profit.
The 4H signals have also reset and the next short trade is lining up. I would suggest that you short anywhere below $1235 and take profit around $1229.
As always the best is to subscribe to my email alerts on my blog to get notified when I trade.
Good luck
Chris
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Gold trading update 24 November 2013
Hi Everyone.
On the 4H timeframe we saw a reset in the signals late on Friday, you can therefor trade short on gold below $1239 and take profit around the $1229 level
On the daily gold signals I would suggest that you hold on to see the trending direction.
Have a great week
Chris
On the 4H timeframe we saw a reset in the signals late on Friday, you can therefor trade short on gold below $1239 and take profit around the $1229 level
On the daily gold signals I would suggest that you hold on to see the trending direction.
Have a great week
Chris
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Trading update
Hi everyone
The strategy for Friday should be to wait until gold trades above 1250 and then go short if the price drops below 1235.
I would strongly recommend that you close all positions before the market closes for the week.
All the best
Chris
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Gold trading update 20 November 2013
Hi everyone
I am quite proud to report that my call on both the 4H and Day trading levels were spot on. Hopefully some of you made some money. I am currently only trading the 4H time-frames but managed to go short at $1271.56 and took profits at $1260.41.
What makes this game eve more magical is that this all happened while I was at work - bot trading!
On Monday I suggested a short trade on the daily gold signals at $1267 and close the position at $1245 ( a level breached in the last 30 minutes). If you are still in the market I would suggest that you take profits and get a good nights rest.
Hopefully the 4H signals resets during the course of tomorrow and we still get another short trade in before the markets close on Friday night. I will post an update on this tomorrow night. ( Or you can follow my live updates by subscribing to my mail alerts on this blog)
All the best
Chris
I am quite proud to report that my call on both the 4H and Day trading levels were spot on. Hopefully some of you made some money. I am currently only trading the 4H time-frames but managed to go short at $1271.56 and took profits at $1260.41.
What makes this game eve more magical is that this all happened while I was at work - bot trading!
On Monday I suggested a short trade on the daily gold signals at $1267 and close the position at $1245 ( a level breached in the last 30 minutes). If you are still in the market I would suggest that you take profits and get a good nights rest.
Hopefully the 4H signals resets during the course of tomorrow and we still get another short trade in before the markets close on Friday night. I will post an update on this tomorrow night. ( Or you can follow my live updates by subscribing to my mail alerts on this blog)
All the best
Chris
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Gold trading update 19 November 2013
Hi everyone
Today saw a bit of an improvement in the gold price, although it did not get to the 1280 level mentioned yesterday it came close at 1279.
Bottom line however is that the graphs on 4H are loaded for a short trade with the current trigger being around the 1269 level. This target price should increase overnight to around 1270 - 1272 being the level for a short trade entry during the day tomorrow.
Keep an eye out for trades from this blog during the course on tomorrow. Profit should be watched closely as there might be a reversal to long trades in the next couple of days.
From the perspective on daily signals as per my post of last night you would have entered into a short trade. My suggestion is that you place a stoploss at around 1294 and take profits at 1245.
All the best
Chris
Today saw a bit of an improvement in the gold price, although it did not get to the 1280 level mentioned yesterday it came close at 1279.
Bottom line however is that the graphs on 4H are loaded for a short trade with the current trigger being around the 1269 level. This target price should increase overnight to around 1270 - 1272 being the level for a short trade entry during the day tomorrow.
Keep an eye out for trades from this blog during the course on tomorrow. Profit should be watched closely as there might be a reversal to long trades in the next couple of days.
From the perspective on daily signals as per my post of last night you would have entered into a short trade. My suggestion is that you place a stoploss at around 1294 and take profits at 1245.
All the best
Chris
Warning from the OECD
Interesting article from the newswires, I cannot agree more!
PARIS--The uncertain future of U.S. fiscal and central bank policies poses a growing risk to a global economic recovery that has already been weakened by a slowdown in growth in many developing economies, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said Tuesday.
In its twice-yearly Economic Outlook report, the Paris-based research body said the U.S. debt ceiling should be abolished, and replaced by "a credible long-term budgetary consolidation plan with solid political support."
The report marks a significant shift in the OECD's focus of concern, which in recent years has been centered on the euro zone's attempts to tackle its fiscal and banking crises. While the OECD remains worried about the euro zone's frailties, the most immediate threats to the global recovery now appear to come from the U.S.
The OECD said a series of events has undermined confidence and stability in recent months, including the "surprisingly strong" reaction by investors to the possibility that the Federal Reserve will soon start to reduce its asset-purchase program. That led to related concerns about developing economies, and was followed by a "potentially catastrophic" crisis precipitated by negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling.
"These events underline the prominence of negative scenarios and risks that the recovery could again be derailed," OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan said.
The heightened risks from the U.S. are in addition to continued ones from a fragile euro-zone banking sector and Japan's fiscal situation, the OECD said.
The warnings came as the OECD forecast only a modest economic recovery through 2015. The combined economies of the 34 members of the OECD will grow 1.2% this year, before accelerating to 2.3% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015, according to its forecasts.
Growth rates between major economies will continue to differ markedly with the euro zone contracting 0.4% this year before growing 1% next year, while the U.S. will grow 1.7% and 2.9% over the same periods.
The twice-yearly economic outlook is slightly weaker than in May, mainly because of an expected slowdown in some large developing economies that partly reflects their vulnerability to capital outflows when the Federal Reserve does eventually start to reduce its stimulus program.
"The turmoil following the tapering discussions in mid-year has revealed how sensitive some emerging market economies are to U.S. monetary policy," the OECD said.
The OECD cut its 2014 growth forecast for Brazil to 2.2% from 3.5% in May, its forecast for India to 4.7% from 6.7%, and its forecast for Indonesia to 5.6% from 6.2%. It cut its growth forecast for China more modestly to 8.2% from 8.4%, still leaving it above that of many other economies.
The research body said the weaker growth outlook for some developing economies was more deeply rooted in "long-standing structural impediments that had been hidden by abundant capital inflows." Solutions to those problems vary from country to country, but generally developing economies need more formal and efficient labor markets and stronger, market-based financial systems, Mr. Padoan said.
Largely as a result of its more downbeat assessment of the outlook for large developing economies, the OECD cut its forecast for global gross domestic product growth by around 0.5 percentage points this year and next to 2.7% and 3.6%, respectively.
The OECD said that even if it creates turbulence and damages other economies, the Federal Reserve should nonetheless wind down its asset purchases next year if unemployment continues to fall and inflation strengthens, and start to raise its benchmark interest rate in 2015.
"Over the medium-to-long term, the costs of excessive liquidity are rising. Tapering has to begin at some stage," Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD also stressed the dangers arising from the U.S. debt ceiling. If the ceiling became binding--a fate narrowly avoided in October--the U.S. economy would be catapulted into a deep recession, according to the think tank's analysis.
Even if such a scenario were to be avoided, the ongoing negotiations will still be damaging.
"The continuous affair of discussing debt every few months is simply detrimental to confidence levels and therefore growth," Mr. Padoan said.
In the euro zone, weak bank balance sheets and fragile public finances could still unsettle financial markets, the OECD said. The euro-zone swiftly must correct any capital shortfalls it finds in its banks, as a banking sector in disrepair could easily get out of control, Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD also acknowledged that there is an increased risk of deflation in the euro-zone and welcomed the recent cut in the European Central Bank's main refinancing rate to 0.25%.
"If the deflationary risks increase, the ECB should be prepared to do more, including having negative deposit rates and buying more assets on the secondary market," Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD also added its voice to recent criticism of Germany's role in helping to rebalance the euro zone's economy, noting that while southern European nation have trimmed their trade gaps, "much less adjustment, if any, is taking place in surplus countries."
"More durable and symmetric adjustment is needed through reforms to labor and product markets, including liberalization of services in Germany that would strengthen and rebalance demand," Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD said that in Japan, "strong" efforts to cut the budget deficit are needed to slow the pace at which the government's debt is rising.
"In view of the extraordinarily high public debt ratio, a more detailed and credible medium-term consolidation plan is required to maintain confidence in government finances," the OECD said.
Write to William Horobin at william.horobin@wsj.com and Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 19, 2013 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT)
PARIS--The uncertain future of U.S. fiscal and central bank policies poses a growing risk to a global economic recovery that has already been weakened by a slowdown in growth in many developing economies, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said Tuesday.
In its twice-yearly Economic Outlook report, the Paris-based research body said the U.S. debt ceiling should be abolished, and replaced by "a credible long-term budgetary consolidation plan with solid political support."
The report marks a significant shift in the OECD's focus of concern, which in recent years has been centered on the euro zone's attempts to tackle its fiscal and banking crises. While the OECD remains worried about the euro zone's frailties, the most immediate threats to the global recovery now appear to come from the U.S.
The OECD said a series of events has undermined confidence and stability in recent months, including the "surprisingly strong" reaction by investors to the possibility that the Federal Reserve will soon start to reduce its asset-purchase program. That led to related concerns about developing economies, and was followed by a "potentially catastrophic" crisis precipitated by negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling.
"These events underline the prominence of negative scenarios and risks that the recovery could again be derailed," OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan said.
The heightened risks from the U.S. are in addition to continued ones from a fragile euro-zone banking sector and Japan's fiscal situation, the OECD said.
The warnings came as the OECD forecast only a modest economic recovery through 2015. The combined economies of the 34 members of the OECD will grow 1.2% this year, before accelerating to 2.3% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015, according to its forecasts.
Growth rates between major economies will continue to differ markedly with the euro zone contracting 0.4% this year before growing 1% next year, while the U.S. will grow 1.7% and 2.9% over the same periods.
The twice-yearly economic outlook is slightly weaker than in May, mainly because of an expected slowdown in some large developing economies that partly reflects their vulnerability to capital outflows when the Federal Reserve does eventually start to reduce its stimulus program.
"The turmoil following the tapering discussions in mid-year has revealed how sensitive some emerging market economies are to U.S. monetary policy," the OECD said.
The OECD cut its 2014 growth forecast for Brazil to 2.2% from 3.5% in May, its forecast for India to 4.7% from 6.7%, and its forecast for Indonesia to 5.6% from 6.2%. It cut its growth forecast for China more modestly to 8.2% from 8.4%, still leaving it above that of many other economies.
The research body said the weaker growth outlook for some developing economies was more deeply rooted in "long-standing structural impediments that had been hidden by abundant capital inflows." Solutions to those problems vary from country to country, but generally developing economies need more formal and efficient labor markets and stronger, market-based financial systems, Mr. Padoan said.
Largely as a result of its more downbeat assessment of the outlook for large developing economies, the OECD cut its forecast for global gross domestic product growth by around 0.5 percentage points this year and next to 2.7% and 3.6%, respectively.
The OECD said that even if it creates turbulence and damages other economies, the Federal Reserve should nonetheless wind down its asset purchases next year if unemployment continues to fall and inflation strengthens, and start to raise its benchmark interest rate in 2015.
"Over the medium-to-long term, the costs of excessive liquidity are rising. Tapering has to begin at some stage," Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD also stressed the dangers arising from the U.S. debt ceiling. If the ceiling became binding--a fate narrowly avoided in October--the U.S. economy would be catapulted into a deep recession, according to the think tank's analysis.
Even if such a scenario were to be avoided, the ongoing negotiations will still be damaging.
"The continuous affair of discussing debt every few months is simply detrimental to confidence levels and therefore growth," Mr. Padoan said.
In the euro zone, weak bank balance sheets and fragile public finances could still unsettle financial markets, the OECD said. The euro-zone swiftly must correct any capital shortfalls it finds in its banks, as a banking sector in disrepair could easily get out of control, Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD also acknowledged that there is an increased risk of deflation in the euro-zone and welcomed the recent cut in the European Central Bank's main refinancing rate to 0.25%.
"If the deflationary risks increase, the ECB should be prepared to do more, including having negative deposit rates and buying more assets on the secondary market," Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD also added its voice to recent criticism of Germany's role in helping to rebalance the euro zone's economy, noting that while southern European nation have trimmed their trade gaps, "much less adjustment, if any, is taking place in surplus countries."
"More durable and symmetric adjustment is needed through reforms to labor and product markets, including liberalization of services in Germany that would strengthen and rebalance demand," Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD said that in Japan, "strong" efforts to cut the budget deficit are needed to slow the pace at which the government's debt is rising.
"In view of the extraordinarily high public debt ratio, a more detailed and credible medium-term consolidation plan is required to maintain confidence in government finances," the OECD said.
Write to William Horobin at william.horobin@wsj.com and Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 19, 2013 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT)
Monday, November 18, 2013
Trending comments.
We have experienced a stall in the current downtrend of the 4H Gold price.
My expectation is that the price of gold will rise to around the 1280 level in the next 24 hours. Confirmation of the 4H downtrend will occur if the price then drops below 1270.
The 4H trend will turn bullish should the 1295 price be crossed.
The daily signals confirms that the downtrend is still well on it's way, trading on daily signals should be short if 1267 is breached.
Good luck
Chris
My expectation is that the price of gold will rise to around the 1280 level in the next 24 hours. Confirmation of the 4H downtrend will occur if the price then drops below 1270.
The 4H trend will turn bullish should the 1295 price be crossed.
The daily signals confirms that the downtrend is still well on it's way, trading on daily signals should be short if 1267 is breached.
Good luck
Chris
Thursday, November 14, 2013
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